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Future Vision ... The Future of Household Robots
For decades, the image of the robot of the future has been closer to
old science fiction than to modern ideals. When thinking of household
robots, it is impossible to separate what they look like and what they
can do from the "standards" set by the 1950's Jetsons, the Star
Wars robots, and even the movie I, Robot. Here we try to separate myth
and reality to see what is in the future.
Instead of the "all-in-one" robot of fiction, future household
robots will be specialized to do one particular chore or sets of chores
well.
From the article "Domestic bliss through mechanical marvels?",
from USATODAY.com, comes this opinion of the future of household robots:
"Robot experts predict that a decade from now, boomers might buy
a specialized R2D2-like robot to clean the kitchen and another health
care 'bot to monitor vital signs and make sure pills are taken. Yet another
robot — built more like a skinny, five-foot-tall human — might
specialize in fetching things from shelves or the basement, making life
easier and reducing chances for falls. "
Predictions for household robots of the future include:
- Robots will pick up dishes from the table and put them in dishwasher
.
- Vision will help robots recognize objects.
- Health care robots will monitor blood pressure, dispense pills and
call 911.
- Robots will connect through the Internet to be controlled remotely,
to give information, and to communicate with others. They will also
communicate with other robots.
- Robots will be used to do tasks like trash collection, cleaning, repairing,
etc.
- Robots will be able to think, look, sound, and move more like humans.
- Robots will secure and monitor houses and be able to call security
or the police.
- Robots may be used as friends and companions or for entertainment.
- Robots will be able to learn by themselves.
- Robots will get their energy from the environment (flies, slugs, garbage,
sun, etc...)
- Robots will play sports
Another article,
"Robot science puts on a friendly face", from USATODAY.com,
gives us the following timeline for the future of robots:
"Carnegie Mellon's Hans Moravec has mapped out a future well into
the new century, drawing a strong parallel between robot intelligence
(measured by computer processing power) and biological intelligence:
- Between now and around 2015, Moravec envisions machines that will
evolve far beyond Roomba. A more advanced vacuum cleaner will schedule
and predetermine cleaning routes and empty its own dust bags.
- By 2020, machines will be first-generation "universal robots"
that could prepare an egg, put out the dishes and clean the table. At
this stage, robots execute applications with "reptilian inflexibility,"
Moravec says, unable to deal with unexpected contingencies.
- A decade later, Moravec's second-generation universal robot would
possess cognitive abilities: "Instead of having a program that
says 'do this, do this and do this,' it says 'do this or this, or this
or this.' "
- By the time the third-generation universal robot appears in 2040,
it takes on the ability to like, dislike, model behaviors and mentally
rehearse what it needs to do. It can handle simple conversation. Says
Moravec: "All it knows about is a specific place, specific object,
specific people and specific actions. You can't ask it, 'What do you
think about the situation in Iraq?' "
- Tinkering with a fourth-generation robot's psyche might prove menacing.
In 2050, Moravec says robots gain the brainpower of humans. Robots will
be able to engage in abstract thought and reasoning. And they likely
will do people tasks better than people, possibly creating a wave of
automations that might displace humans from their livelihoods. "
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